law of averages
C1-C2Formal, Semi-Formal, Everyday (in popular use)
Definition
Meaning
The principle stating that over a large number of trials or events, the actual outcomes will tend to approach the expected probability.
A common, often mistaken, belief that past outcomes influence future probabilities in independent events (e.g., believing a coin is 'due' for heads after several tails).
Linguistics
Semantic Notes
In statistical contexts, it refers to mathematical laws (e.g., law of large numbers). In everyday use, it often describes a flawed intuitive belief about probability balancing out.
Dialectal Variation
British vs American Usage
Differences
No significant lexical or syntactic differences. Concept and usage are identical.
Connotations
Both regions recognise the technical statistical meaning and the common misconception.
Frequency
Similar frequency in both varieties, common in sports, gambling, and casual business contexts.
Vocabulary
Collocations
Grammar
Valency Patterns
According to the law of averages, X will happen.X happened, but the law of averages says Y is due.We're counting on the law of averages.Vocabulary
Synonyms
Strong
Neutral
Weak
Vocabulary
Antonyms
Phrases
Idioms & Phrases
- “It's due. (colloquial reflection of the concept)”
- “The dice have to turn.”
- “Odds are it'll balance out.”
Usage
Context Usage
Business
"We've lost three pitches in a row; by the law of averages, we'll win the next one." (Often used for morale, not sound forecasting)
Academic
"The study invoked the law of large numbers, not the colloquial 'law of averages,' to project long-term trends."
Everyday
"I've had terrible luck parking this week, so the law of averages says I'll find a spot right outside today."
Technical
"The law of averages is a misnomer for the law of large numbers, which guarantees convergence of sample means."
Examples
By Part of Speech
verb
British English
- One cannot "law of average" something; it's a noun phrase only.
American English
- You can't verbify this phrase; use "rely on the law of averages."
adverb
British English
- No adverbial form exists.
American English
- There is no adverb derived from this phrase.
adjective
British English
- It is not used adjectivally. Use attributive noun: 'a law-of-averages argument'.
American English
- Not standard as an adjective. Use 'probabilistic' or 'based on averages'.
Examples
By CEFR Level
- I missed the bus four times, so the law of averages says I'll catch it tomorrow.
- If you keep trying, the law of averages means you'll succeed once.
- The coach believed in the law of averages, thinking a win was inevitable after so many losses.
- Investors sometimes mistakenly rely on the law of averages instead of rigorous analysis.
- While the law of averages is a popular heuristic, it fundamentally misunderstands the independence of stochastic events.
- His strategy was predicated on a flawed interpretation of the law of averages, leading to significant losses.
Learning
Memory Aids
Mnemonic
AVERAGES even out over a very long AVE (road/way). Imagine a long avenue where the high and low points eventually level out to an average flat path.
Conceptual Metaphor
PROBABILITY IS A FORCE THAT CORRECTS IMBALANCES. (e.g., 'The universe will balance it out.')
Watch out
Common Pitfalls
Translation Traps (for Russian speakers)
- Прямой перевод «закон средних величин» звучит неестественно. Лучше: «закон больших чисел» (технический) или описательно: «по теории вероятностей, рано или поздно...»
- Избегайте кальки «закон усреднения».
Common Mistakes
- Using it to justify that a specific independent event is 'due' (Gambler's Fallacy).
- Confusing it with 'regression to the mean,' which is different.
- Using it as a plural: 'laws of averages' is incorrect.
Practice
Quiz
The phrase 'law of averages' is often mistakenly used to justify which logical fallacy?
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
Not in the way it's commonly used. In statistics, the 'law of large numbers' is a real theorem. The colloquial 'law of averages' often refers to the mistaken Gambler's Fallacy.
No. It describes long-term tendencies over many trials. It cannot predict or influence the outcome of any single, independent event.
'Regression to the mean' notes that an extreme measurement is likely to be followed by a less extreme one. The 'law of averages' (in popular use) incorrectly assumes a 'force' that balances outcomes.
No, this is a classic misuse (Gambler's Fallacy). Past losses do not make a future win more likely in independent games of chance.